Likud Fractures Over Election Odds as Nonprofit Turnout Pushes Disrupt Race

Party insiders are split on whether Likud will survive the election scheduled for Tuesday. While some members predict a decisive win, others worry that a massive mobilization effort by the opposition will swing the result. This uncertainty exists despite the government securing a full term by setting the date for October 27.

The division centers on internal polling conducted by Shlomo Filber. One Likud source described the mood as polarized, noting that "we have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so." The source characterized the stakes simply: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

A primary source of anxiety is the activity of nonprofits and organizations supporting rivals to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Party sources claim these groups are directing large sums of money toward voter turnout without direct party funding. The campaign reportedly includes social media ads, signage, field events, and transportation services for Arab voters. One official labeled this surge "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing the groups provide a support network that bypasses party financing rules, though no documentation was provided to prove the activity was illegal.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party asserts the committee focused heavily on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use while paying insufficient attention to the nonprofits' operations.

In reaction, Likud is organizing a large ground operation for Election Day. The party aims to prevent right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates, despite restrictions on gathering information from polling stations. Negotiations to keep Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter from running failed. Winter, who leads the People of Israel party, remained in the race after Rabbi Eli Sadan issued a statement of support following talks.

The party is also courting other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud. Those talks included a proposal for legislation allowing the party to appoint a deputy minister.

A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remain undecided.