Netanyahu and Eisenkot Both Miss Majority in Israel Election
Exit polls indicate a fragmented Knesset where neither the governing nor opposition blocs secure the 61 seats needed to form a government.
By Allison Rojas ·
Israeli voters on Tuesday night left the country without a clear governing majority, according to exit polls from Channels 11, 12, and 13. Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition group seeking to replace him fell short of the 61 seats required for a stable coalition. The result creates an immediate political stalemate in Jerusalem, leaving the formation of the next government uncertain.
The opposition bloc, which includes Yashar, B’Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats, is projected to win between 50 and 53 seats. Netanyahu’s camp is estimated to hold approximately 50 seats. Neither side has a straightforward path to power. The Joint List and Ra’am are projected to capture a combined 17 to 18 seats, positioning the Arab parties as potential key players in coalition talks, though opposition leaders have largely excluded them from government, with the exception of the Democrats’ Yair Golan.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is set to remain the largest single force in the Knesset, with projections of 24 to 25 seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar movement is expected to take 21 to 23 seats. In the opposition camp, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad is projected to be the third-largest party with 12 to 14 seats. Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu is forecast to win 7 to 9 seats, while Yair Golan’s Democrats stand at 9 to 10.
Within Netanyahu’s bloc, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit is projected to win 6 to 7 seats. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party-Zehut is expected to secure 6 seats. The ultra-Orthodox parties are set to receive a combined 12 to 13 seats, with Shas projected at 6 and United Torah Judaism at 6 to 7. Two smaller right-wing parties, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s The Reservists-Economic party, are projected to fall below the 3.25% electoral threshold.
Voter turnout reached its highest level since at least 1973, according to Central Elections Committee records. This high participation occurred despite recent pre-election polls that also showed neither bloc securing a majority. The exit polls suggest a tight race where small parties on the right may struggle to enter the Knesset, further complicating Netanyahu’s ability to build a coalition.
A unity government involving both Netanyahu and Eisenkot appears unlikely, as Eisenkot has rejected serving under the prime minister, including in a rotation arrangement. Other opposition leaders have also ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led coalition. Eisenkot has called for the leader of the largest opposition party to become the candidate for prime minister, but no agreement on this arrangement has been announced yet.
The exit polls also raise the possibility of a minority government that could win a confidence vote without holding an absolute majority. However, opposition within the bloc to relying on Arab parties could complicate such an arrangement. Official results will be determined after all ballots are counted, as exit polls have differed from final tallies in previous elections. The political deadlock could lead to another election if coalition negotiations fail to produce an agreement.
