Palestinian Parties Claim 18 Seats, Forcing Israeli Opposition to Choose Allies
Exit polls show Arab-Israeli representation doubling, complicating coalition talks and potentially handing Prime Minister Netanyahu a path to a comeback.
By Amelia Gupta ·
Palestinian parties are projected to win 17 to 18 seats in Israel's new Knesset, up from 10 in the previous legislature.
This dramatic increase in representation fundamentally alters the country's political dynamics. Arab Israelis, who have often been sidelined in coalition mathematics, now hold enough votes to influence who forms the next government. The shift forces the mainstream opposition to confront a binary choice: cooperate with Arab parties or risk leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in power.
Exit polls from Tuesday's election give a narrow lead to Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc over Netanyahu's governing coalition. Although Likud may remain the strongest single party, the opposition bloc holds the advantage in total seats. This outcome grants President Isaac Herzog the discretion to decide which candidate gets the first attempt to form a government. If the first candidate fails within six weeks, the task passes to the next option, potentially extending the process while the current coalition remains in a caretaker role.
To secure a majority, Eisenkot's "change" bloc must negotiate with the Joint List and Ra'am. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected to win seven seats. Abbas has previously served in a right-leaning government and stated his priority is to "bring down Benjamin Netanyahu, [Bezalel] Smotrich, and [Itamar] Ben-Gvir in this election." His Jewish deputy and history of compromise make him a potentially easier partner for the opposition.
Negotiations with the Joint List are expected to be more difficult. The group is projected to win 10 or more seats. Eisenkot has outlined four conditions for cooperation: recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, accepting the values in the declaration of independence, accepting conscription for Palestinian citizens, and denouncing Hamas as a terrorist organization.
Amjad Shbita, general secretary of the Hadash party, rejected this approach. Speaking on Tuesday, Shbita said, "Laying down conditions won't work with the Joint List. We will negotiate as equals because we need each other." If formal agreements fail, Eisenkot could attempt to rule as a minority government, relying on informal vote-by-vote deals. This unstable arrangement could lead to another election, providing Netanyahu the opportunity to rally conservative support under his slogan, "the Right or Palestine."
In a victory party in Nazareth early Wednesday, a Joint List official summarized the stakes: "The Zionist opposition will have to choose between supremacy and building democracy."
