Moldova Overtakes Ukraine in EU Accession Roadmap

The European Commission’s new enlargement package places Moldova ahead of Ukraine in the European integration process. This shift is evident in the specific roadmaps released by Brussels for both nations.

According to an analysis by European Pravda, the introductory sections of the two roadmaps are nearly identical. However, the detailed timelines reveal a clear divergence in progress. The European Commission maintains an internal ranking of the four leading candidate countries. In this hierarchy, Ukraine currently holds the fourth position, trailing Moldova.

Moldova is described as well advanced in meeting interim criteria. Sources indicate that the European Commission has prepared a positive statement on the Interim Benchmark Assessment Report. This document, which outlines fundamental benchmarks, is expected to be sent to member states for approval soon. The roadmap for Moldova projects the closure of nine chapters in the first half of 2027. It further anticipates the closure of an additional 16 chapters by the end of the year, totaling 25 chapters in that single period.

In contrast, the roadmap for Ukraine plans to begin closing chapters at the end of the first quarter of 2027. Analysts note that this timeline appears ambitious given Kyiv’s current low progress in implementing the Interim Benchmark Assessment Report. The European Commission did not provide a specific date for when either country would conclude accession negotiations. The documents suggest the EU is hoping Ukraine will accelerate its pace of reforms.

On November 4, the European Commission published its annual assessment of the ten candidate countries. Ukraine was included among the four nations that made the greatest progress. The report highlighted improvements in Ukraine’s anti-corruption measures. However, the assessment noted that these gains were achieved despite the actions of the authorities rather than because of them. The European Commission’s optimism for Ukraine’s future progress appears tied to the expectation of faster domestic reform.

The difference in the roadmaps underscores the varying levels of readiness between the two states. While both remain on the path to membership, the specific targets set by Brussels reflect a distinct gap in momentum. Moldova’s trajectory is defined by rapid chapter closure, while Ukraine’s is defined by a more cautious initial phase. The European Commission’s internal views align with the published documents, confirming the relative standing of the two countries in the current enlargement cycle.