Midterm Map: Senate and Governor Races Across Key States

Election Day arrives with polls open in all 50 states, as voters cast ballots to determine the balance of power for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. The contest is a referendum on the administration, with many citizens expressing frustration over high prices and an unpopular conflict with Iran. Only 35 percent of U.S. Adults approve of the president's job performance, while roughly seven in ten believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. These sentiments are driving voter behavior in a crowded field of federal and state races.

The U.S. Senate sees 35 seats up for election, including 33 regular contests and two special elections for the remaining terms held by Marco Rubio and JD Vance. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while Democrats control 45, with two independents caucusing with the minority party. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to seize control, whereas Republicans can afford to lose only two. Eleven senators, including four Democrats and seven Republicans, are not seeking reelection, leaving several open seats that could shift the balance. Winners will begin their six-year terms on January 3, 2027.

Battleground status varies significantly across the map, with race ratings from Cook, Decision Desk, Inside Elections, and Sabato indicating a mix of toss-ups and leanings. Maine is rated a toss-up by all four major trackers, with Sen. Susan Collins facing Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The Associated Press notes that economic strain and tariffs have made the state particularly competitive. In Iowa, the seat is open following the retirement of Joni Ernst, and ratings suggest a toss-up or a slight tilt toward the Republicans. Kansas, traditionally a Republican stronghold, has emerged as central to the fight for Senate control, with Sen. Roger Marshall defending his seat in a race rated from toss-up to lean Republican.

Other key Senate contests include Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Rep. Mike Collins in a state that Trump won by 2.2 points in 2024. Ratings lean or likely favor the Democrats in this race. In Michigan, the open seat left by retiring Sen. Gary Peters is seen as a toss-up or leaning Democratic, featuring Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. El-Sayed's former primary opponent, Haley Stevens, endorsed Rogers on Sunday, adding a layer of complexity to the campaign. Ohio presents a special election contest between Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Sen. Jon Husted, with the state having voted for Trump by 11.2 points in the last presidential cycle.

Texas offers another high-stakes Senate race, with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton challenging Democrat James Talarico. Trump backed Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, signaling a preference that has drawn national attention. In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas competes against former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu for the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. The AP highlights that the Trump administration has filed a lawsuit related to the certification of the Senate result in Alaska, adding legal uncertainty to a race that is rated toss-up to lean Democratic. This legal challenge is part of a broader effort by the administration to influence election outcomes through the Justice Department.

Governors are also up for election in 36 states, with Republicans holding 26 offices and Democrats holding 24 heading into the vote. Of the races on the ballot, each party holds 18 offices. Nineteen of these races feature no incumbent, as 15 governors are term-limited and others have chosen not to run or lost their primaries. Democrats would need a net gain of two governorships to achieve a nationwide majority, a position Republicans have held since 2010. The Associated Press identifies Texas, Florida, and Iowa as competitive governor races, while also noting that Democrats are defending five governorships in states Trump won in 2024, including Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In Georgia, Republican health care executive Rick Jackson faces Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms to succeed term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp. In Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo opposes Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Ohio sees a clash between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton, a race marked by controversy after Ramaswamy's campaign used an ad featuring Acton's estranged mother. Republicans are defending two governorships in states won by Kamala Harris in 2024: New Hampshire, where Gov. Kelly Ayotte is on the ballot, and Vermont, where Gov. Phil Scott is running. Democrats hope to hold a majority of governorships for the first time in two decades, a goal that would provide a significant organizational advantage for 2028.

The financial scale of the 2026 elections is likely to be the highest in history, with Republican committees outraising and outspending Democratic committees at the committee level. This spending advantage was bolstered by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the individual candidate level, Democrats outraised their opponents. An analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024. This includes more than $850 million spent in areas where he won by 10 points or more, suggesting a strategy to consolidate support in strongholds while defending vulnerable seats.